Warrigal comments on Open Thread: October 2009 - Less Wrong
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The Other Presumptuous Philosopher:
It begins pretty much as described here:
...except the simple experiment won't quite falsify one of the theories. You see, the experiment has a trillion different possible outcomes. If T1 is true, the outcome will be a specific possibility that scientists have already calculated. If T2 is true, the outcome will be a random one, distributed uniformly among all possibilities.
Well, the experiment is performed, and the result is the one that's consistent with both theories. For whatever reason, anthropic reasoning is pretty standard in this hypothetical universe, so now, not before but after the experiment, the two theories are considered to be pretty much on par with each other. Enter the Other Presumptuous Philosopher: "Hey guys, we can stop experimenting now, because I can already show to you now, using non-anthropic reasoning, that T1 is about a trillion times more likely to be true than T2!"
My point: the Presumptuous Philosopher argument, though a good argument against certainty of either anthropic or non-anthropic reasoning, isn't a good argument against anything else. It's about as good an argument as "If you think that's true, why don't you bet your life on it?"