It's the Same Five Dollars!

16Z_M_Davis08 March 2009 07:23AM

From Tversky and Khaneman's "The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice" (Science, Vol. 211, No. 4481, 1981):

The following problem [...] illustrates the effect of embedding an option in different accounts. Two versions of this problem were presented to different groups of subjects. One group (N = 93) was given the values that appear in parentheses, and the other group (N = 88) the values shown in brackets.

[...] Imagine that you are about to purchase a jacket for ($125) [$15], and a calculator for ($15) [$125]. The calculator salesman informs you that the calculator you wish to buy is on sale for ($10) [$120] at the other branch of the store, located 20 minutes drive away. Would you make the trip to the other store?

The response to the two versions of [the problem] were markedly different: 68 percent of the respondents were willing to make an extra trip to save $5 on a $15 calculator; only 29 percent were willing to exert the same effort when the price of the calculator was $125. [...] A closely related observation has been reported [...] that the variability of the prices at which a given product is sold by different stores is roughly proportional to the mean price of that product. The same pattern was observed for both frequently and infrequently purchased items. Overall, a ratio of 2:1 in the mean price of two products is associated with a ratio of 1.86:1 in the standard deviation of the respective quoted prices. If the effort that consumers exert to save each dollar on a purchase [...] were independent of price, the dispersion of quoted prices should be about the same for all products.

This one's a killer. Money is supposed to be fungible, but these observations really highlight how difficult it is to really behave as if you believed that. So, aspiring rationalists, how might we combat this in ourselves? Maybe it would help to consciously convert between money and time: if you value your time at 25 $/hr, then the cost of a twenty-minute drive is 25 $/hr * (1/3) hr = $8.33 > $5, so you buy the calculator in front of you in either case. So this heuristic at least takes care of the calculator problem, although I would guess it fails miserably in other contexts, I currently know not which.

Another takeaway lesson is to ignore advertisements boasting that a product is currently such-and-such percent off. We don't care about the percentage! How many minutes are you saving? 

Comments (18)

Annoyance09 March 2009 04:11:45PM4 points [-]

" Money is supposed to be fungible, but these observations really highlight how difficult it is to really behave as if you believed that. So, aspiring rationalists, how might we combat this in ourselves?"

I think there are some hidden assumptions in that question.

Money is supposed to be fungible, yes. But if we act otherwise, is it because money is truly fungible and we're failing to respond appropriately to reality? Or is money itself not fungible and our actions consistent with an understanding that denies our asserted beliefs?

If the unspoken understanding that guides our actions is correct, it's our explicit beliefs that need to be combated. If it's our explicit beliefs that are right, it's our intuition that must be fought. We can't determine the right course of action until we know where the error is.

dscrimshaw09 March 2009 01:27:15AM7 points [-]

One reason that I would do the 20 minute trip across town for a $5 saving is to reward the store with the good deal and punish the store with the high price.

Since a 20-minute trip is almost never worth $5 to me, it will really depend on how cranky I am.

In this scenario, given that they are different branches of the same store, the whole thing might make me so cranky that I go to another store completely or figure out a way to go a while longer without a calculator.

This is pretty much why I do not have colour ink in my printer right now. I was at a Staples recently and they had ink for a price I was willing to pay but I knew they were selling it online cheaper.

I know I'm not acting rationally about whether I have ink and how much I'm spending on it. I also know that I shouldn't assign moral values to Staples' pricing policies, but I don't think I'll be printing in colour until either I find someone with a pricing policy that doesn't feel all wrong to me or my girlfriend buys some ink because she doesn't want to wait for me to do it any longer.

simpleton08 March 2009 07:21:47PM15 points [-]

There's a heuristic at work here which isn't completely unreasonable.

I buy $15 items on a daily basis. If I form a habit of ignoring a $5 savings on such purchases, I'll be wasting a significant fraction of my income. I buy $125 items rarely enough that I can give myself permission to splurge and avoid the drive across town.

The percentage does matter -- it's a proxy for the rate at which the savings add up.

It's also a proxy for the importance of the savings relative to other considerations, which are often proportional to the value of what you're buying. If you were about to sign the papers on a $20000 car purchase, would you walk away at the last minute if you found out that an identical car was available from another dealer for $19995? Would you try to explicitly weigh the $5 against intangibles such as your level of trust in the first dealer compared to the second, or would you be right to regard the $5 as a distraction and ignore it?

Nick_Tarleton08 March 2009 09:33:40PM* 4 points [-]

But if the time to drive across town is worth more than $5 in the $125 case, it's worth more than $5 in the $15 case, and forming that habit loses big. (Unless driving across town once allows you to save on more than one item, but that completely breaks the example.)

Other than cognitive cost, I don't see any reason to speak in terms of habits rather than case-by-case judgments here.

In the car case, you know the cost of walking away is very high; this screens off the informational value of the price.

PaulG08 March 2009 09:39:55PM2 points [-]

It seems to me like it shouldn't matter how often you buy the $15 items, technically. Even if you always bought $125 items and never bought $15 items, your heuristic still wouldn't be completely irrational. If you only buy $125 items, you'll only be able to buy 4% more stuff with your income, as compared to 33% more stuff if you always buy $15 items.

cleonid08 March 2009 07:34:26PM9 points [-]

The seeming irrationality of the customers choice may disappear after the cost of decision-making is taken into account.

In our daily life we are constantly required to estimate trade-offs between things that are very difficult to quantify (e.g. pleasure of wearing a new jacket - money that has to be paid – extra hours of work to earn this money - …). Hence using simple subconscious heuristics (such as “improving the trade-off by 50% is worthy of your time, 5% is not”) is very helpful. A constant search for an optimal solution would make a nightmare out of our every decision, which is hardly worth an occasional 5$ saving.

In this specific example, I believe that increasing the price differentials would have justified an additional mental effort, leading more people to the “optimal choice”.

Nick_Tarleton08 March 2009 09:36:53PM2 points [-]

Good point. It's worth noting that those heuristics can use dollar values as well, although percentages are more cognitively natural.

Nominull08 March 2009 05:48:42PM2 points [-]

Sometimes you buy more than one thing at a time. The heuristic might be something along the lines of, if that store is 33% cheaper on that calculator it might be 33% cheaper on other things, and you might end up saving a lot more than $5. If the calculator is only 4% cheaper, your savings will only work out to near $5, which might not be worth your 20 minutes.

jimrandomh08 March 2009 04:38:15PM2 points [-]

When advertisements talk about percentage off, they're providing two prices. The higher price is meant to anchor your judgment of the item's value and your estimates of what other stores will charge, while the lower price is meant to seem cheap by comparison. However, the higher price is not required to be reasonable, and in fact, it usually isn't; stores often mark items up to ridiculous prices just so they can bring them back down again with sales.

rwallace08 March 2009 10:14:34AM6 points [-]

I've had to consciously adjust my reactions on this sort of thing a few times, by reminding myself that the amount I should care about saving 1 euro on a product should not depend on the total price - but only and specifically on how frequently I will buy the product.

Put another way: it helps to have the right formula to replace the wrong one.

billswift08 March 2009 02:17:02PM2 points [-]

I've come across this problem before - what the problem really is is the inappropriate use of proportional savings ($5 is a higher proportion of $15 than of $125) when the attention should be on the absolute savings ($5 in either case) because of the way the problem was framed. The way the problem was presented in this post actually obscures this point.

prase09 March 2009 02:02:55PM1 point [-]

What use of proportional / absolute savings exactly is appropriate? Can you be more specific in which point is obscured by the framing?

steven046108 March 2009 01:21:03PM2 points [-]

3600 seconds in an hour, so if you value your time at $18/hour you should imagine a cent ticking away every two seconds, if $36/hour a cent every second, etc.

billswift08 March 2009 05:45:50PM3 points [-]

Cents and seconds are really too small to impact much on people's decisions. I've found it more useful to frame it in dollar or five minute increments - for every multiple of $12 an hour, that's $1 every 5 minutes. That is substantial enough that I (and probably people in general) will pay more attention to it.

Yvain08 March 2009 11:34:35AM2 points [-]

Converting between time and money sounds like a good solution to this problem.

If you're interested in the broader psychological mechanism behind this bias, I highly recommend Jonah Lehrer' s blog post on irrational purchasing decisions: http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2009/02/shopping.php

ciphergoth08 March 2009 10:59:13AM1 point [-]

I've tried to combat this one by imagining the item at a variety of different price points, with the same saving. I don't know how you'd measure how much success you were having, though, because obviously no-one who understood this bias would exhibit it in a formal test setting, only in more informal settings where it's harder to compare. You need some way of mixing it up so you can't just do the sum, but the bias emerges from the noise all the same.

billswift08 March 2009 04:09:32PM1 point [-]

If you can't "just do the sum" then there is no apparent bias - you are just making an arbitrary choice if you can't compare them rationally.

ciphergoth14 March 2009 01:38:58PM1 point [-]

What I'm hoping for is something akin to the racism tests which don't show you two candidates identical except for race and ask you to choose between them, but which mix up races and CVs and find the racism in the noise with statistical techniques.