Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

MichaelVassar comments on Parapsychology: the control group for science - Less Wrong

62 Post author: AllanCrossman 05 December 2009 10:50PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (185)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: MichaelVassar 10 December 2009 07:20:33PM 10 points [-]

One problem with this argument is that if psi exists, we are very bad at using it, and we don't see other organisms using it well either. The world we see appears to be almost completely described by normal physics at worst.

I don't think that I'm double-counting evidence. I certainly know that there can be intelligent believers, after all, MANY intelligent people believe that one is compelled to accept the conclusions of the scientific method over those of the scientific community. Also, beliefs can be compelling for any variety of irrational reasons. The evidence I have seen though looks to me like exactly the evidence you would expect given known psychology and no psi. We can surely agree that there is a LOT of evidence that hyman psychology would create belief in psi in the absence of psi, can't we.

I would set my odds at "top twenty most astoundingly surprising things ever discovered but maybe not top ten". That seems to me like odds of many billions to one against, but not trillions. Unfortunately, the odds for almost any plausible winning conditions occurring without psi being real are much higher, making the bet difficult to judge. I have a standing 10,000 to one bet against Blacklight Power's "Hydrino Theory" with Brian Wang based on a personal estimate of odds MUCH less than 1-in-10K for "Hydrino Theory" and I'm happy to extend those odds when the odds are still more favorable, but psychotic breaks by two people in a group of three? If the odds per person are 1%, that gives odds of about 1:3300. I'm happy to give those odds on the Dawkins, Randi Yudkowsky bet and count "psi is actually real" as a rounding error.

Comment author: Yvain 11 December 2009 02:39:15PM 11 points [-]

Have donated $10 to SIAI (seemed less likely to lose you guys money in transaction fees than $1) with public comment about the bet . Will decide where you can donate your $33000 in the unlikely event it proves necessary.