I'd feel ridiculously overconfident stating a probability of less that 1e-6, yet I don't have the slightest hesitation to take that bet. (Brain sucks at small probabilities.) Condition is any two among {Randi, Dawkins, Eliezer, Vassar, me}, but if one is reported to have developed a new mental illness at least two months before they say psi is real, they don't count.

Also, let's make it purchasing power as of 2011, not dollar amount. Assuming scarcity lasts long enough.