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ciphergoth comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong
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Those are very high confidences, could you say a little about that?
The prior probability of a three-way conspiracy to commit rape and murder is way, way lower than the prior probability of it being a one man job.
I didn't see any evidence that would move much probability mass away from the prior probabilities, but this could just be due to the slice of the evidence I saw given my 30 minutes or so of reviewing it.