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ciphergoth comments on You Be the Jury: Survey on a Current Event - Less Wrong
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Do I think my assessment will coincide with yours? Of course I do, we're supposed to be rationalists!
I had zero familiarity with the case before reading the links provided, and did not read any of the comments in reaching my estimate.
I admit to having non-trivially updated based on my perception of the lack of seriousness of the pro-conviction site's domain name (what is this, Marvel Comics?)
Those are very high confidences, could you say a little about that?
The prior probability of a three-way conspiracy to commit rape and murder is way, way lower than the prior probability of it being a one man job.
I didn't see any evidence that would move much probability mass away from the prior probabilities, but this could just be due to the slice of the evidence I saw given my 30 minutes or so of reviewing it.