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Psychohistorian comments on The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom - Less Wrong

42 Post author: komponisto 13 December 2009 04:16AM

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Comment author: Psychohistorian 13 December 2009 06:15:25AM 3 points [-]

Your point about privileging the hypothesis, and the fact that we feel a need to explain away weird facts in order to believe Knox's innocence, is excellent, though it gets rather buried in a very long post.

As far as the probability estimates go, I expect that many people (like me) did two things: erred on the side of underconfidence, and used numbers as conveying a general feeling. Particularly since it's a criminal case, it doesn't take much to disagree with a conviction. If I'd put the odds of Knox's guilt at .95, I'd say she'd been wrongly convicted, as 5% is extremely reasonable doubt - think that if that were our normal standard, we could have hundreds of thousands of totally innocent people imprisoned. So if people are somewhat like me, they probably just picked a low number to show "not guilty" and left it at that.

Of course, this is largely your point: given the evidence, there's really no reason those numbers should too much higher than they are for a random inhabitant of the city, so our willingness to compromise is itself a flaw, though, in this context, a flaw without adverse effect, as we'd still acquit.

Comment author: MendelSchmiedekamp 13 December 2009 06:37:33AM 11 points [-]

there's really no reason those numbers should too much higher than they are for a random inhabitant of the city

Actually simply being in the local social network of the victim should increase the probability of involvement by a significant amount. This would of course be based on population, murder rates, and so on. And likely would also depend on estimates of criminology models for the crime in question.