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Yvain comments on The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom - Less Wrong

42 Post author: komponisto 13 December 2009 04:16AM

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Comment author: Yvain 13 December 2009 03:01:12PM 3 points [-]

...and why do you assert that? If you have good reasons, I'd like to see a top level post on the subject, since this is my natural response to a bunch of probability estimates given by different people with the same information who are rational enough that I care what they think.

Comment author: badger 13 December 2009 05:51:55PM 3 points [-]

Not a top level post because I don't think I have the definitive say on the matter, but I made an article in the wiki that illustrates why the mean of the log-odds makes more sense.

Unfortunately, the wiki appears to have issues with math right now, so the article has an ugly error message in it. The formula works fine in the Wikipedia sandbox. If anyone knows what is going on or has any other changes, feel free to edit.

Comment author: wedrifid 13 December 2009 09:52:02PM *  1 point [-]

...and why do you assert that?

Somebody with no information does not so effectively counterbalance ten people who can describe the positions of every atom on the planet.

I calculated an example involving 0.99, 0.5, 0.745 and (1-10^20) but then I noticed badger's link beat me to it.