Thanks for the link. While I can't claim to completely understand it on first (and second) read, a few thoughts do come to mind.

I followed a link on that page to the "What evidence filtered evidence" file, and a comment there struck me as being more descriptive of my approach: "If there are two clever arguers in the box dilemma, it is not quite as good as one curious inquirer, but it is almost as good. "

Within most of the forums, they are heavily weighed one way or the other; even neutral forums have the problem that the individuals there are weighed one way or the other. They have arrived at a conclusion, and will argue the rest of the evidence to fit the conclusion. So, I would posit that in many cases you will find that you will have one clever arguer. Is it such a stretch to play the other clever arguer by taking the opposing viewpoint? The Evidence article concludes, "if you are hearing an argument for the first time, and you are only hearing one side of the argument, then indeed you should beware".

Getting back to the Bottom Line theory, my inclination is also to think that Komponisto post actually fits more the 'bottom line' theory then my own responses. In discarding other DNA that would have the 'winds of evidence' blowing towards other individuals, Komponisto references the FOA interpretation of that evidence, which is coming from about as much of a Bottom Line position as you can get. After that assessment, it is only then that we're taken down the rational approach of evaluating the remaining evidence, instead of including the DNA evidence in our evaluation.

Further, Komponisto also states early on that one of the places where you would have the highest signal-to-noise ratio is indeed within the minds of those present; I quote, "the most important evidence in a murder investigation will therefore be the evidence that is the closest to the crime itself -- evidence on and around the victim, as well as details stored in the brains of people who were present during the act"

It was this 'mind' evidence that the police were first presented with, -not- the physical evidence. It was Knox's own statement that placed her at the scene- first as an eyewitness that implicated the bar owner. It was only -after- the physical evidence came back that they found it pointed to Guede instead of Patrick. Under Komponisto's framework, we have to evaluate that evidence almost as equally as we do the physical.

After that, Komponisto's argument that the investigators needed to have an 'inferential path' from Guede to Knox is not as strong (and Komponisto argues that it was the investigators who were at error with this point, not the jury). Knox had placed herself at the scene, and the later stories from Knox & Sollecito were too contradictory and too late; too many questions were raised.

Looking at the two lesswrong articles reference, my inclination is that the 'bottom line' theory applies to people who are unaware that they are taking such a stand. Does it apply when someone deliberately is aware they are taking an opposing standpoint with the belief that that is a path towards a better understanding of the evidence which would ultimately lead one to a "right" conclusion?

I am quite well aware that I take an opposing viewpoint, and in my recent experience it leads to a better discussion around the evidence then agreeing with someone on the conclusion they've arrived to on the evidence. Once people are challenged on their conclusions on their evidence, then the rich arguments come out.

I've gone into other forums and argued extensively that the break-in was -not- staged, and it helped me understand all the reasons people came to the conclusion it was. Applying the american legal definition of 'beyond a reasonable doubt', I have yet to see someone prove 'beyond a reasonable doubt' that the break-in was staged. However, if I were to simply agree with those who believe that, then I would never encounter their rationale on why they came to that conclusion.

In doing so, my own flaws in understanding the evidence are also revealed.

In a final note, in my experiences with my early posts in this forum it seemed I ran into as much people here with the Bottom Line as I have elsewhere . Posts were being voted down as trolls, even simple explanatory posts that provided a technical reference on weighing the evidence. I fail to understand how voting down posts with technical information (that coincidentally provided a contradictory view of the evidence) is "discourse...aimed at discovering the truth".

But I do sincerely appreciate the reference to the other articles; it has given me something to chew on.

Pat

See also: Against Devil's Advocacy.

Thanks for that link Vladmir. I had been planing to write a post on that very subject. People throw around the "I'm being a devil's advocate" as though it is a noble mission rather than crime against reason.