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private_messaging comments on The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom - Less Wrong

42 Post author: komponisto 13 December 2009 04:16AM

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Comment author: private_messaging 31 January 2014 09:58:40AM *  3 points [-]

Overturned, though.

With regards to "bayesian" analysis in question, as dilaudid said, the fact that a body was found makes for a fairly high probability that one out of a fairly small number of people connected to the victim has committed or participated in the murder. Even more so for a staged break-in.

The reason why we shouldn't imprison people based on things such as apparently weird behaviour has little to do with it's impact on probability, and everything to do with the potential for the abuses that a subjective criterion would create, as well as discrimination against "weird people" such as borderline autistic. We have to think what is going to happen on the bigger scale if we start using "weirdness" as evidence in the court.

The issue in this case is that the narrative presented by the police seems incredibly improbable even given all the facts, and there are far more probable narratives where she committed a lesser crime (such as being an accessory after the act). People who would commit murder are much rarer than people who may act as an accessory.