Creutzer comments on The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom - Less Wrong

42 Post author: komponisto 13 December 2009 04:16AM

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Comment author: Creutzer 02 February 2014 11:05:04PM *  2 points [-]

Such a thing is extremely anti-social and is, I hope, criminalized itself.

I doubt that criminalisation would change much. Without having researched this, I would assume that people make false confessions when they believe they would be convicted even if they didn't confess.

I'm also not sure what's supposed to be so extremely antisocial about it. It's not like the police will surely catch the responsible party if only you don't make that false confession to get a more lenient sentence.

If you change your story, the probability of your guilt is 1.00. If one version of your story includes a false accusation (i.e., of another person), that goes up to 2.00

Well, one shouldn't be using such heuristics without prior research into the matter, precisely because of the typical mind fallacy. You couldn't imagine innocent people changing their stories - but it happens. So what does that say about the validity of your inference from your own imagination to the expected behaviour of other people?

Comment author: JohnBonaccorsi 03 February 2014 12:02:24AM -2 points [-]

You couldn't imagine innocent people changing their stories - but it happens. So what does that say about the validity of your inference from your own imagination to the expected behaviour of other people?

I didn't see the above when I first read your comment; maybe I was busy forming, mentally, my reply, below, to the rest of what you said. I direct you to the comment I just posted, at 02 February 2014 11:49:15PM, in response to Wes_W.

Comment author: JohnBonaccorsi 02 February 2014 11:15:20PM -2 points [-]

I also doubt that criminalisation would change much.

It wouldn't hurt.

I'm also not sure what's supposed to be so extremely antisocial about it. It's not like the police will surely catch the responsible party if only you don't make that false confession to get a more lenient sentence.

Presumably, a false confession increases the likelihood that a case will be erroneously closed. That, in my estimation, makes it extremely antisocial, not least because it increases the likelihood that a criminal is not only at large but is unrecognized as such. Every person is obliged to avoid giving his or her fellow human beings false information about crime.

Comment author: Creutzer 02 February 2014 11:34:11PM *  2 points [-]

It wouldn't hurt.

Right, because the people making false confessions aren't under enough psychological pressure already...

That, in my estimation, makes it extremely antisocial

Can you give me an example of what you consider to be a mildly antisocial act?

Every person is obliged to avoid giving his or her fellow human beings false information about crime.

At arbitrary costs to themselves... ?