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ciphergoth comments on Previous Post Revised - Less Wrong
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What general advice for yourself do you have as a result of this error? Presumably it's more than just "don't be so overconfident", since I'm guessing you asked yourself at the time whether you were being overconfident and concluded you weren't.
Probably something along the lines of: don't say anything more than you need to make your point.
My "gut feeling" is still somewhere in the region of what I originally said -- that there's roughly a snowball's chance in hell that Knox and Sollecito commited murder -- but my post is a stinging indictment of the verdict even if it only argues for a probability of 0.1.