How much of a distraction did you find my extremely confident probabilities to be from the substance of my arguments?

A big distraction. They made me strongly emotionally opposed to anything you had to say, and it was difficult to overcome my reaction.

How much did those confident estimates make it seem like I was disagreeing, rather than agreeing, with the LW survey consensus? (It seemed to me that I had provoked people into trumpeting pro-guilt arguments more than they otherwise would have if I had initally given more "reasonable" numbers.)

Very much. I definitely felt provoked into the pro-guilt position. But then again, I'm very stubborn and oppositional like that.

To what sorts of propositions, if any, do you yourself assign probabilities on the order of 0.999 or 0.001?

I would avoid assigning those kind of probabilities to political propositions, anything heavily polarized, or anything related to current events. In such cases it's very tempting to take one side or the other instead of looking at both objectively.