New Year's Predictions Thread

MichaelVassar

I would like to propose this as a thread for people to write in their predictions for the next year and the next decade, when practical with probabilities attached. I'll probably make some in the comments.

A major terrorist attack in the US (50%) most likely with a connection to Pakistan.

I would be very happy to accept a bet with you on those odds if there's a way to sort it out. I'd define major as any attack with more than ten deaths.

I've added this prediction to PredictionBook: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1565 based on the description at http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Bets_registry

1gwern16y

So now that 2010 is more than half over with no attack that I know of, have you or mattnewport's opinions changed? (I notice that domestic terrorism seems kind of spiky - quite a few in one year, and none the next: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Islamist_terrorism_in_the_United_States omits entire years but has several in one year, like 2007 or 2009.)

5MrHen16y

I voted all the betting comments up because I think this is awesome. Does this kind of thing happen often here?

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