While the estimate does seem crazy, no-one's actually offered Thomas a bet, and mattnewport didn't offer to bet; Thomas has, thus far, done what mattnewport did, except he didn't offer realistic bets.

If you're going to do a bit of policing of LW, you ought to either address your comment to him and offer him advice to improve, or else block him: if his comments are unerringly useless, you shouldn't be warning the flock about the wolf but removing him.