ciphergoth comments on New Year's Predictions Thread - Less Wrong

18 Post author: MichaelVassar 30 December 2009 09:39PM

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Comment author: ciphergoth 01 January 2010 08:54:17PM 2 points [-]

The Conservatives will win a majority the next UK general election (60%), there will be no overall majority (37%), or any other outcome (3%).

Do you have bets on Intrade or Betfair for those guesses? It's probably better for you to bet directly than for me to do arbitrage on you :-) They have around 68% Conservative victory, 26% no overall majority, and around 6% Labour victory.

Betfair