Unknowns comments on New Year's Predictions Thread - Less Wrong

18 Post author: MichaelVassar 30 December 2009 09:39PM

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Comment author: Unknowns 02 January 2010 06:28:10AM 6 points [-]

Clearly, if you observed that you were 1,000,000,000 years old, this would support the theory that you are immortal. But you observe that you not that old, but much less. Therefore, by Bayes theorem, it becomes more probable that you are not immortal. Since you assign odds of 100% to not being presented with such evidence, this means you should be willing to wager any amount, against nothing, that you would not receive such evidence. You may therefore now send me all your money.