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ciphergoth comments on New Year's Predictions Thread - Less Wrong
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I am more confident of winning as you'd expect. But I'm finding it counterintuitive to adjust my subjective probability for losing the bet in proportion to the portion of the year that's lapsed, which means either my initial probability was too low or my current one is too high.
Incidentally, if you have a specific probability for an event occurring in 1 out of 365 days, say, or not occurring at all, you could try to calculate exactly what probability to give it occurring in the rest of the year (considering that it's August): http://www.xamuel.com/hope-function/ / http://www.gwern.net/docs/1994-falk
(Actually calculating the new probability is left as an exercise for the reader.)