gwern comments on New Year's Predictions Thread - Less Wrong

18 Post author: MichaelVassar 30 December 2009 09:39PM

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Comment author: gwern 21 August 2010 09:56:09AM 0 points [-]

China is the 2nd biggest economy in 2020 (99%). Note I'm counting the EU as lots of countries, not as one big economy. Counting the EU together, China will be the 3rd biggest.

Now, that's unfair. You've already won that one, and any look at the numbers would've told you this was a like 99.999% prediction or something.

Comment author: FAWS 21 August 2010 10:11:44AM *  0 points [-]

No, there is a reasonable (IMO >1%) chance China could overtake the USA or EU in the next ten years.

Comment author: gwern 21 August 2010 11:07:15PM 0 points [-]

I'm a little confused what you're predicting. China is already the 2nd biggest economy, my understanding was, unless the EU is counted as a single economy. So your 99% prediction is actually 'China will not become the world's largest economy and will remain #2/#3'?

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