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MrHen comments on Open Thread: January 2010 - Less Wrong
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My ISP? Or my IP address? I assume the latter.
Most ISPs recycle IP addresses between subscribers periodically. So someone using the same ISP as you could have ended up with the same IP address.
Ah, okay. I completely misinterpreted your previous comment.
But how many users do you expect sit on the same IP? And thus, what is the prior probability that basically the only spammer in weeks (there was only one another) would happen to have the same IP as one of the few dozen (or less) of users active enough to notice a day's IP block? This explanation sounds like a rationalization of a hypothesis privileged because of availability.
I didn't know the background spamming rate but it does seem a little unlikely doesn't it? A chance reuse of the same IP address does seem improbable but a better explanation doesn't spring to mind at the moment.
Not a reason to privilege a known-false hypothesis. It's how a lot of superstition actually survives: "But do you have a better explanation? No?".