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komponisto comments on The Amanda Knox Test: How an Hour on the Internet Beats a Year in the Courtroom - Less Wrong

42 Post author: komponisto 13 December 2009 04:16AM

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Comment author: komponisto 29 December 2009 07:11:09AM 1 point [-]

My probability estimate of guilt was around 1%. This makes me one of the few people in reasonably good agreement with Eli's conclusion.

As far as I am aware, all we know about EY's number is that it is bounded from above by 15%.

Since the average estimate was 35% (and that was before this post, after reading which some people said they updated downward, and no one said they updated upward), it's fair to say a lot of people were in reasonably good agreement with EY's conclusion.

Perhaps Less Wrong commenters are distrustful of their instincts to the point of throwing out the baby with the bathwater.

I don't know whether SfS's comment is to be taken as attempted satire or not, but I did wonder if a sort of "Spock bias" might result in reluctance to update on the sort of evidence presented here or here. As it turned out, that didn't seem to be so much of an issue here on LW (for all that character assassination of Amanda played a role in the larger public's perception). By far the biggest obstacle to arriving at probability estimates close to mine was that old chestnut: trusting in the fundamental sanity of one's fellow humans. (The jury must have known something we didn't, and surely Judge Micheli knew what he was doing...)

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 29 December 2009 08:32:45AM 2 points [-]

The idea was that anything over 15% was wildly unreasonable.