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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Open Thread: January 2010 - Less Wrong
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I didn't know the background spamming rate but it does seem a little unlikely doesn't it? A chance reuse of the same IP address does seem improbable but a better explanation doesn't spring to mind at the moment.
Not a reason to privilege a known-false hypothesis. It's how a lot of superstition actually survives: "But do you have a better explanation? No?".