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ciphergoth comments on The Preference Utilitarian’s Time Inconsistency Problem - Less Wrong
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These are not realistic scenarios as painted. In order to be able to actually imagine what really might be the right thing to do if a scenario fitting these very alien conditions arose, you'll have to paint a lot more of the picture, and it might leave our intuitions about what was right in that scenario looking very different.
They're not realistic because they're designed to isolate the relevant intuitions from the noise. Being suspicious of our intuitions about fictional scenarios is fine- but I don't think that lets you get away without updating. These scenarios are easy to generate and have several features in common. I don't expect anyone to give up their utilitarianism on the basis of the above comment-- but a little more skepticism would be good.
I'm happy to accept whatever trolley problem you care to suggest. Those are artificial but there's no conceptual problem with setting them up in today's world - you just put the actors and rails and levers in the right places and you're set. But to set up a situation where hundreds will die in this possible riot, and yet it it certain that no-one will find out and no norms will be set if you frame the guy - that's just no longer a problem set in a world anything like our world, and I'd need to know a lot more about this weird proposed world before I was prepared to say what the right thing to do in it might be.