This is exactly the right way to state it. The question is, when is it better to ignore evidence? More precisely, when is it better for a human to ignore evidence? What, if any, biases and limitations of the human mind make inside-view reasoning dangerous?

I failed to convey an idea of my answer in "Consider representative data sets". Prototypes that come to mind in planning are not representative (they are about efficient if-all-goes-well plans and not their real-world outcomes), and so should either be complemented by more concepts to make up representative data sets (which doesn't work in practice), or forcefully excluded from consideration. The deeper the inside view the better, unless you are arriving at an answer intuitively under the conditions of predictably tilted availability.