RobinZ comments on Advancing Certainty - Less Wrong
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With all the caveats, I'd guess somewhere south of one in ten thousand. I would expect the biggest terms by far in the error rate to be:
User error.
Design fault.
Mechanical failure (e.g. solder bump fracture, display damage).
I'd like to know some estimates of probability that high-energy radiation can affect a calculation, but pretty much everything after 1 is highly unlikely.