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Larks comments on The Prediction Hierarchy - Less Wrong
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Comments (37)
If it were 40 million predictions about lotteries of that size I could.
Don't be so overconfident, apparently in 1997 New York ran a promotion that doubled the payouts of a single game on exactly 4 days in exactly 1 month, and payed out $1.40 to $1 on average.
That's a different game though, where the odds of winning aren't one in 40 million.