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ciphergoth comments on The Prediction Hierarchy - Less Wrong
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Great work! That said, I'm suspicious of this for being too convenient - I'm given cause to worry by the way I like the answers it gives too much. It almost seems to make the standard caution against overconfidence disappear from our calculations altogether, especially in the cases where it's hardest to think about. And it gets us into "reference class tennis" again.
That's a good point - standard cautions against overconfidence should reduce p(C), much like time pressure, exhaustion, and complexity of argument.