GuySrinivasan comments on The Prediction Hierarchy - Less Wrong

21 Post author: RobinZ 19 January 2010 03:36AM

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Comment author: GuySrinivasan 19 January 2010 09:26:22AM *  2 points [-]

Don't be so overconfident, apparently in 1997 New York ran a promotion that doubled the payouts of a single game on exactly 4 days in exactly 1 month, and payed out $1.40 to $1 on average.

Comment author: Larks 20 January 2010 09:15:08AM 0 points [-]

That's a different game though, where the odds of winning aren't one in 40 million.