Toby_Ord comments on The Prediction Hierarchy - Less Wrong

21 Post author: RobinZ 19 January 2010 03:36AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (37)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Toby_Ord 19 January 2010 12:07:56PM 1 point [-]

Not quite. It depends on your beliefs about how the calculation could go wrong and how much this would change the result. If you are very confident in all parts except a minor correcting term, and are simply told that there is an error in the calculation, then you can still have some kind of rough confidence in the result (you can see how to spell this out in maths). If you know the exact part of the calculation that was mistaken, then the situation is slightly different, but still not identical to reverting to your prior.