orthonormal comments on The Prediction Hierarchy - Less Wrong

21 Post author: RobinZ 19 January 2010 03:36AM

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Comment author: orthonormal 20 January 2010 01:42:54AM *  1 point [-]

It comes out to about the right number in this case, but your math is wrong. The expected number of times you win in n trials at probability p equals np, but the probability of winning at least once is slightly less at 1-(1-p)^n.

Comment author: LucasSloan 20 January 2010 01:45:06AM 1 point [-]

Yes, thanks for the correction.