I simply don't see the justification for claiming the power and glory of the Outside View at all in cases like this, let alone claiming that there exists a unique obvious reference class and you have it.

It could even be somewhat worse. Forbidden things seem to be higher status 'bad' than things that can be casually dismissed.

Forbidding "reliance" on pain of loss of prestige isn't all that much better than forbidding "exploration" on pain of loss of prestige.

The "on pain of loss of prestige" was implicit, if it was there at all. All that was explicit was that Robin considered your evidence to be of lower quality than you thought. Insofar as there was an implicit threat to lower status, such a threat would be implicit in any assertion that your evidence is low-quality. You seem to be saying that it is logically rude for Robin to say that he has considered your evidence and to explain why he found it wanting.