ciphergoth comments on The Craigslist Revolution: a real-world application of torture vs. dust specks OR How I learned to stop worrying and create one billion dollars out of nothing - Less Wrong

47 Post author: Kevin 10 February 2010 03:15AM

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Comment author: gwern 10 February 2010 10:57:39PM 7 points [-]

The absence of rule of law, democratic checks on the military, continual conflict and overall incompetence also increases the chances lab error or misuse of high tech weaponry as technology become more accessible while social, economic and political conditions do not improve.

I just had a fun idea: take this premise, and the demonstrated difficulty of improving Africa, and the idea that the development vs. likeliness-to-screw-everybody-over-with-WMDs curve would be an inverted U, and calculate the point at which it would be better to cut off all aid & begin bombing Africa into (or within) the Stone Age.

Comment author: ciphergoth 12 February 2010 11:20:48AM *  5 points [-]

I think this is voted down unfairly. I read this not as a genuine plea to nuke Africa, but as a Robin Hanson-esque caution against motivated thinking. We'd like aid to Africa to be the Right Thing, and if we're made uncomfortable by the idea that existential risk trumps that, why, here's a good reason why aid to Africa is justified on existential risk grounds! So this is a sort of antidote: if that were your real reason, you'd greet gwern's alternative solution with a great deal more equanimity than you do.

EDIT: I'm obviously super-persuasive, since it's gone from downvoted to upvoted since my comment :-)

Comment author: gwern 12 February 2010 05:42:33PM 2 points [-]

I read this not as a genuine plea to nuke Africa,

Oh, of course not. At least, not until I've crunched some numbers.

but as a Robin Hanson-esque caution against motivated thinking

Quite right. It's fun to use logical arguments to wind up in a uncomfortable place.

I'm obviously super-persuasive, since it's gone from downvoted to upvoted since my comment :-)

Obviously, if you get the same number of up-votes as the original paradox/comment! ;_;