The conjunction fallacy applies only when you already have a probability law. (a specification of a probability space). It applies to events in a probability space. The conjunction rule proscribes assigning a subset event higher probability than the event containing it.
Occam's razor is prescription for what probability laws should look like (e.g each program having a prior probability of (1/2) to the power of its code length in bits). i.e. what constitutes an outcome in the probability space, all outcomes having equal probability.
The conjunction fallacy really says nothing about prior probabilities. The conjunction rule is a theorem in probability. Occam's razor is a working rule for assigning prior probabilities to hypotheses.
The conjunction fallacy really says nothing about prior probabilities. The conjunction rule is a theorem in probability. Occam's razor is a working rule for assigning prior probabilities to hypotheses.
Prior and posterior probabilities are not made of fundamentally different stuff, and posterior of one calculation can turn out the be prior in the next. Assuming fundamentally distinct sets of probabilities and new ways of popping probabilities into existence seems uncalled for.
You were also suggesting to first use conjunction rule to weed out hypotheses that are less likely, and then summoning Occam's razor to do the exact same thing again. This too seems redundant.
Link.
"Razib Khan has an academic background in the biological sciences, and has worked for many years in software. He is an Unz Foundation Junior Fellow. He lives in the western United States."
Razib's writings can be found on his blog, Gene Expression.