CronoDAS comments on Open Thread: February 2010, part 2 - Less Wrong

10 Post author: CronoDAS 16 February 2010 08:29AM

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Comment author: CronoDAS 17 February 2010 07:41:48AM 0 points [-]

Even at Moore's Law speeds, simulating 10^11 neurons, 10^11 glial cells, 10^15 synaptic connections, and concentrations of various neurotransmitters and other chemicals in real time or faster-than-real time is going to be expensive for a long time before it becomes cheap.

Comment author: LucasSloan 17 February 2010 07:55:54AM 2 points [-]

Not necessarily. If a human brain with no software tricks requires 10^20 CPS (a very high estimate), then (according to Kurzweil, take with grain of salt) the computational capacity will be there by ~2040. However, it's certainly possible that we don't get the software until 2050, at which point anyone with a couple hundred dollars can run one.

Comment author: orthonormal 17 February 2010 07:54:45AM 1 point [-]

Depends on which details actually need to be simulated. I suspect that most intracellular activity can be neglected or replaced with some simple rules on when a cell divides, adds a synapse, etc.

Comment author: CronoDAS 17 February 2010 08:03:49AM 1 point [-]

For the record, this is something I don't have much confidence in - WBE requires a sufficiently detailed brain scan, computers of sufficient processing power to run the simulation, and enough knowledge of brains on the microscopic level to program a simulation and understand the output of the simulation. I do not know which will turn out to be the bottleneck in the process.

Comment deleted 17 February 2010 01:46:09PM *  [-]
Comment author: CronoDAS 17 February 2010 03:04:19PM *  2 points [-]

Most technological developments seem to go from "We don't know how to do this at all" to "We know how to do this, but actually doing it costs a fortune" to "We know how to do this at an affordable price." WBE could be an exception, though, and completely skip over the second stage.