I have two basic questions that I am confused about. This is probably a good place to ask them.
What probability should you assign as a Bayesian to the answer of a yes/no question being yes if you have absolutely no clue about what the answer should be? For example, let's say you are suddenly sent to the planet Progsta and a Sillpruk comes and asks you whether the game of Doldun will be won by the team Strigli.
Consider the following very interesting game. You have been given a person who will respond to all your yes/no questions by assigning a probability to 'yes' and a probability to 'no'. What's the smallest sequence of questions you can ask him to decide for sure that a) he is not a rationalist, b) he is not a Bayesian?
For number 1 you should weight "no" more highly. For the answer to be "yes" Strigli must be a team, a Doldun team, and it must win. Sure, maybe all teams win, but it is possible that all teams could lose, they could tie, or the game might be cancelled, so a "no" is significantly more likely to be right.
50% seems wrong to me.
We've had these for a year, I'm sure we all know what to do by now.
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