I'm not sure our guesses (I presume you have not tested the lottery ticket swap experimentally) are actually in conflict. My thesis was not "they think you're cheating", but simply, straightforwardly "they object to any alteration of the dealing rules", and they might do so for the wrong reason - even though, in their defense, valid reasons exist.
Your thesis, being narrow, is definitely of interest, though. I'm trying to think of cases where my thesis, interpreted naturally, would imply the opposite state of objection to yours. Poor shuffling (rule-stickler objects, my-cardist doesn't) might work, but a lot of people don't attend closely to whether cards are well-shuffled, stickler or not.
(Incidentally, If you had made a top-level post, I would want to see this kind of prediction-based elimination of alternative hypotheses.
EDIT: Wow, this turned into a ramble. I didn't have time to proof it so I apologize if it doesn't make sense.
I'm not sure our guesses (I presume you have not tested the lottery ticket swap experimentally) are actually in conflict. My thesis was not "they think you're cheating", but simply, straightforwardly "they object to any alteration of the dealing rules", and they might do so for the wrong reason - even though, in their defense, valid reasons exist.
Okay, yeah, that makes sense. My instinct is pointing me in the other direction ...
We've had these for a year, I'm sure we all know what to do by now.
This thread is for the discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. If a discussion gets unwieldy, celebrate by turning it into a top-level post.