I don't want to tout control systems as The Insight that will create AGI in twenty years, but if I was working on AGI, hierarchical control systems organised as described by Bill Powers (see earlier references) are where I'd start from, not Bayesian reasoning[1], compression[2], or trying to speed up a theoretically optimal but totally impractical algorithm[3]. And given the record of toy demos followed by the never-fulfilled words "now we just have to scale it up", if I was working on AGI I wouldn't bother mentioning it until I had a demo of a level that would scare Eliezer.

Friendliness is a separate concern, orthogonal to the question of the best technological-mathematical basis for building artificial minds.

1. LessWrong, passim.

2. Marcus Hutter's Compression Prize.

3. AIXItl and the Gödel machine.