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Sniffnoy comments on Open Thread: March 2010 - Less Wrong
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In the calls, does she specify when she is coming over? I.e. does she say she'll be coming over on Thursday, Friday, just sometime in the near future, or she leaves it for you to infer?
The information I gave is the information you have. Don't make me make the problem more complicated.
ETA: Let me expand on this before people start getting on my case.
Rationality is about coming to the best conclusion you can given the information you have. If the information available to you is limited, you just have to deal with it.
Besides, sometimes, having less information makes the problem easier. Suppose I give you the following physics problem:
I throw a ball from a height of 4 feet; its maximum height is 10 feet. How long does it take from the time I throw it for it to hit the ground?
This problem is pretty easy. Now, suppose I also tell you that the ball is a sphere, and I tell you its mass and radius, and the viscosity of the air. This means that I'm expecting you to take air resistance into account, and suddenly the problem becomes a lot harder.
If you really want a problem where you have all the information, here:
Every time period, input A (of type Boolean) is revealed, and then input B (also of type Boolean) is revealed. There are no other inputs. In time period 0, input A is revealed to be TRUE, and then input B is revealed to be TRUE. In time period 1, input A is revealed to be TRUE, and then input B is revealed to be TRUE. In time period 2, input A is revealed to be FALSE. What is the probability that input B will be revealed to be TRUE?
Having less information makes easier the problem of satisfying the teacher. It does not make easier the problem of determining when the ball hits the ground. Incidentally, I got the impression somehow that there are venues where physics teachers scold students for using too much information.
ETA (months later): I do think it's a good exercise, I just think this is not why.
Here, though, the problem actually is simpler the less information you have. As an extreme example, if you know nothing, the probability is always 1/2 (or whatever your prior is).
I can say immediately that it is less than 50% - to be more rigorous would take a minute.
Edit: Wait - no, I can't. If the variables are related, then that conclusion would appear, but it's not necessary that they be.