wnoise comments on Open Thread: March 2010 - Less Wrong

5 Post author: AdeleneDawner 01 March 2010 09:25AM

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Comment author: wnoise 08 March 2010 09:54:37PM 2 points [-]

Directly using the Laplace rule of succession on the sample space A \tensor B gives weights proportional to:

(A,B): 3
(A, ~B): 1
(~A, B): 1
(~A, ~B): 1

Conditioning on ~A, P(B|~A) = 1/2. Assuming independence does make a significant difference on this little data.