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zero_call comments on What are our domains of expertise? A marketplace of insights and issues - Less Wrong
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We have no idea what the Gaussian distribution looks like. We don't necessarily have to be on the tail, just somewhere say one sigma away. No observation of civilizations just corresponds to us being younger than average and the other civilizations being far away. Or we could be older and the other civilizations just haven't formed yet. But none of this can imply whether life is uncommon or common.