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thomblake comments on Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model - Less Wrong
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Comments (153)
Drawing Two Aces might count.
A bunch of people got the wrong answer, and it was presumed to be against your naive intuitions if you don't know how to do the math. But any doubters understood the right answer once it was pointed out.
Thanks for recollecting that. That was a case where someone wrote a program to compute the answer, which could be taken as definitive.
I just counted up the first answers people gave, and their initial answers were 29 to 3 in favor of the correct answer. So there wasn't much disagreement to begin with.
I don't think that qualified. There was no revelation, just an agreement on process and on result. That was not a question analogous to PhilGoetz's model, where some agents had more accurate estimates, and you use the result to determine how accurate they might be on other topics.