Dagon comments on Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (153)
I don't think that qualified. There was no revelation, just an agreement on process and on result. That was not a question analogous to PhilGoetz's model, where some agents had more accurate estimates, and you use the result to determine how accurate they might be on other topics.