Vladimir_M comments on Open Thread: May 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong
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Yes, it was in fact thinking about that topic that made me try to write these thoughts down systematically. What I would like to do is to present them in a way that would elicit well-argued responses that don't get sidetracked into mind-killer reactions (and the latter would inevitably happen in places where people put less emphasis on rationality than here, so this site seems like a suitable venue). Ultimately, I want to see if I'm making sense, or if I'm just seeking sophisticated rationalizations for some false unconventional opinions I managed to propagandize myself into.
Another type of example you could use in this topic is a real one, that occurred in the past.
This would better than a fictional example, actually, as it brings in evidence from reality much earlier.