gwern comments on Open Thread: May 2010, Part 2 - Less Wrong

3 Post author: Kevin 20 May 2010 07:30PM

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Comment author: gwern 21 May 2010 06:10:34PM 4 points [-]

Is there any reliable way to measure the outcome to see if it worked?

If we assume that the appraisals are disconnected from the winning bids*, then couldn't one just see whether the ratio of sale:appraisal is increasing? If the appraisals are honest, then any jiggery-pokery should alter the ratio - eg. a successful manipulation will lead to people paying an average 93%, where they used to pay 90%.

  • that is, there is no feedback - the appraisers don't look at recent sales and say, oh, I've been lowballing all my estimates! I'd better start raising them.