Will_Newsome comments on Abnormal Cryonics - Less Wrong
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No. It more accurately reduces to "we don't really know what the heck existence is, so we should worry even more about these fundamental questions and not presume their answers are inconsequential; taking precautions like signing up for cryonics may be a good idea, but we should not presume our philosophical conclusions will be correct upon reflection."
Alright, but I would argue that a date of 2050 is pretty damn late. I'm very much in the 'singularity is near' crowd among SIAI folk, with 2050 as an upper bound. I suspect there are many who would also assign a date much sooner than 2050, but perhaps this was simply typical mind fallacy on my part. At any rate, your 13% is my 5%, probably not the biggest consideration in the scheme of things; but your implicit point is correct that people who are much older than us should give more pause before dismissing this very important conditional probability as irrelevant.
Maybe, but a major point of this post is that it is bad epistemic hygiene to use generalizations like 'the vast majority of LW commenters' in a rhetorical argument. You and I both know many people who donate much more than 5% of their income to these kinds of organizations.
But I'm talking specifically about assuming that any given argument against cryonics is stupid. Yes, correct people when they're wrong about something, and do so emphatically if need be, but do not assume because weak arguments against your idea are more common that there do not exist strong arguments that you should presume your audience does not possess.
If the atmosphere is primarily based on memetics and rhetoric, than yes; but if it is founded in rationality, then the two should go hand in hand. (At least, my intuitions say so, but I could just be plain idealistic about the power of group epistemic rationality here.)
It's not a separate question, it's the question I was addressing. You raised the separate question. :P
What about 99% of Less Wrong readers? 99% of the people you're trying to reach with your rhetoric? What about the many people I know at SIAI that have perfectly reasonable arguments against signing up for cryonics and yet consistently contribute to or read Less Wrong? You're not actually addressing the world's population when you write a comment on Less Wrong. You're addressing a group with a reasonably high standard of thinking ability and rationality. You should not assume their possible objections are stupid! I think it should be the duty of the author not to generalize when making in-group out-group distinctions; not to paint things as black and white, and not to fall into (or let readers unnecessarily fall into) groupthink.