taw comments on Abnormal Cryonics - Less Wrong

56 Post author: Will_Newsome 26 May 2010 07:43AM

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Comment author: taw 27 May 2010 07:45:57PM 4 points [-]

This is all survivorship bias and nothing more, many other stock exchanges crashed completely or had much lower returns like Japanese.

Comment author: SilasBarta 27 May 2010 07:53:18PM 1 point [-]

And I should add that markets are wickedly anti-inductive. With all the people being prodded into the stock market by tax policies and "finance gurus" ... yeah, the risk is being underpriced.

Also, there needs to be a big shift, probably involving a crisis, before risk-free rates actually make up for taxation, inflation, and sovereign risk. After that happens, I'll be confident the return on capital will be reasonable again.