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pjeby comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong

126 Post author: komponisto 03 June 2010 04:40AM

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Comment author: pjeby 04 June 2010 06:23:25PM 8 points [-]

You got a 50% chance.

No, you don't. Switching gives you the right door 2 out of 3 times. Long before reading this article, I was convinced by a program somebody wrote that actually simulates it by counting up how many times you would win or lose in that situation... and it comes out that you win by switching, 2 out of 3 times.

So, the interesting question at that point is, why does it work 2 out of 3 times?

And so now, you have an opportunity to learn another reason why your intuition about probabilities is wrong. It's not just the lack of "memory" that makes probabilities weird. ;-)