pjeby comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (191)
No, you don't. Switching gives you the right door 2 out of 3 times. Long before reading this article, I was convinced by a program somebody wrote that actually simulates it by counting up how many times you would win or lose in that situation... and it comes out that you win by switching, 2 out of 3 times.
So, the interesting question at that point is, why does it work 2 out of 3 times?
And so now, you have an opportunity to learn another reason why your intuition about probabilities is wrong. It's not just the lack of "memory" that makes probabilities weird. ;-)