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AlephNeil comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong

126 Post author: komponisto 03 June 2010 04:40AM

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Comment author: AlephNeil 05 June 2010 01:06:38AM 0 points [-]

I'm not keen on this analogy because you're comparing the effect of the new information to an agent freely choosing to pour sand in a particular way. A confused person won't understand why Omega couldn't decide to distribute sand some other way - e.g. equally between the two remaining buckets.

Anyway, I think JoshuaZ's explanation is the clearest I've ever seen.