Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

Jack comments on Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way) - Less Wrong

126 Post author: komponisto 03 June 2010 04:40AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (191)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Jack 08 June 2010 08:00:57PM *  3 points [-]

If for some insane reason, they go all the way to the final two cases

The way the deals work going down to the final two cases can end up the best strategy. Basically they weight the deals to encourage higher ratings. As long as there is a big money case in play they won't offer the contestant the full average of the cases- presumably viewers like to watch people play for the big money so the show wants these contestants to keep going. If all the big money cases get used up the banker immediately offers the contestant way more than they are worth to get them off the stage and make way for a new contestant.

(This was my conclusion after watching until I thought I had figured it out. I could be reading this into a more complex or more random pattern.)