Do you want to become stronger in the way of Bayes? This post is intended for people whose understanding of Bayesian probability theory is currently somewhat tentative (between levels 0 and 1 to use a previous post's terms), and who are interested in developing deeper knowledge through deliberate practice.
Our intention is to form an online self-study group composed of peers, working with the assistance of a facilitator - but not necessarily of a teacher or of an expert in the topic. Some students may be somewhat more advanced along the path, and able to offer assistance to others.
Our first text will be E.T. Jaynes' Probability Theory: The Logic of Science, which can be found in PDF form (in a slightly less polished version than the book edition) here or here.
We will work through the text in sections, at a pace allowing thorough understanding: expect one new section every week, maybe every other week. A brief summary of the currently discussed section will be published as an update to this post, and simultaneously a comment will open the discussion with a few questions, or the statement of an exercise. Please use ROT13 whenever appropriate in your replies.
A first comment below collects intentions to participate. Please reply to this comment only if you are genuinely interested in gaining a better understanding of Bayesian probability and willing to commit to spend a few hours per week reading through the section assigned or doing the exercises.
As a warm-up, participants are encouraged to start in on the book:
Preface
Most of the Preface can be safely skipped. It names the giants on whose shoulders Jaynes stood ("History", "Foundations"), deals briefly with the frequentist vs Bayesian controversy ("Comparisons"), discusses his "Style of Presentation" (and incidentally his distrust of infinite sets), and contains the usual acknowledgements.
One section, "What is 'safe'?", stands out as making several strong points about the use of probability theory. Sample: "new data that we insist on analyzing in terms of old ideas (that is, models which are not questioned) cannot lead us out of the old ideas". (The emphasis is Jaynes'. This has an almost Kuhnian flavor.)
Discussion on the Preface starts with this comment.
I'm currently trying to go through Jaynes:PTTLOS myself. As mentioned earlier in this comments: you hardly learn anything by reading alone, you need to discuss or solve exercises. So of course I would love to join a group!
I am currently in Manchester, UK, but will spend most of August and early September on the road, without regular internet access. After that I do not know for sure where I will live or how much time I can commit. But I am very interested!
I also do have a high-quality .pdf-version of the book. Apparently it is the first edition and has no links but it is not simply a scan of the pages of the book! That means the formulae and diagrams are all very high quality and you can do a full text search. I am not sure on the legal status though, probably it is an "only for private study use"-version that one is not supposed to make publicly available. What is the LW-policy concerning links to such content?
Non-profit doesn't change anything as far as I know (IANAL as they say).
I'm pretty sure that people who want to get a copy of the book can get it based on information they already have, and my recommendation would be to not expose yourself to legal risks.